UK Home Office data published today has revealed a 30% year-on-year decline in study visa applications to the UK from January to March 2026.
High refusal rates from Q4 2025 have been sustained, driving the study visa issuance rate down 32% in Q1 2026 compared to the same period last year.
The figures come as the UK’s Labour government hails “real progress” in bringing total net migration to 171,000 in 2025, the lowest level since 2012, excluding the pandemic, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
In what home secretary Shabana Mahmood called a restoration of “order and control to our borders”, the 2025 figure was nearly half the total for 2024, with the ONS citing the fall in non-EU nationals arriving for “work-related reasons” as the main driving force.
The total net migration figures – relating to 2025 – provide a backdrop to the Q1 2026 data that confirms sector fears about persistently high study visa rejection rates, as institutions prepare for heightened compliance measures coming into force next month.
Pakistan – the UK’s fourth largest sender of international students – has been hardest hit by visa denials, with more than 40% of Pakistani applicants refused a study visa this year, compared to just 6% in Q1 2025.
Elsewhere, Bangladesh, Ghana, Sri Lanka and Nigeria all saw visa rejections upwards of 20%, while the total denial rate stood at 13%.
We must restore order and control to our borders
Shabana Mahmood, UK Home Secretary
Meanwhile, India, the UK’s largest source market, recorded a denial rate of 6.7% in Q1 2026, falling from 8.6% the previous quarter, though more than double the 2.9% seen in Q1 2025. China stands out for its rejection rate of 0.4%.
Bucking the trend, Nepal’s rejection rate in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 combined fell to 4.6%, down from 11.3% in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.
UK institutions will be paying close attention to the data as the Home Office tightens university compliance requirements, with new Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) metrics coming in on June 1, 2026, including a new RAG rating system.
Under the new rules, universities will be marked at ‘red’ for having a 5% visa refusal rate and ‘amber’ if it’s above 4%, alongside tighter enrolment rate and course completion thresholds.
