With outbound numbers down 30% in the past two years – reflecting fewer students leaving India each year – amid tighter policies and rising costs, the study abroad market may be slowing. But consultancies say the dip is “temporary” as they adapt to a markedly different landscape compared to just a few years ago.
According to Ravi Lochan Singh, managing director, Global Reach, the market is gradually returning to pre-Covid levels, which may appear as a “shrinkage” compared to the 2023/24 surge, but should not be “misread”.
“The decline in student numbers is driven by falling interest in the US due to Trumpian policies, a slump in Canada amid immigration changes and diplomatic tensions, and rising visa refusals in Australia in recent months. However, this should not be interpreted as a drop in interest among Indian students in studying overseas,” Singh told The PIE News.
“It is simply that workers travelling under the guise of students to exploit work provisions are being filtered out, leaving behind more genuine students, while others are choosing new destinations when interest in one country declines.”
Shift to Europe and East Asia not “anecdotal” anymore
While total university enrolments abroad fell 5.7% to 1.254 million in 2025 after three years of growth, a QS report projects Indian outbound mobility to grow 4% annually in the coming years.
Consultancies in India say that while the ‘big four’ – the US, UK, Australia and Canada – will remain primary destinations in the long run despite stricter visa and post-study work rules, the shift to wider Europe and parts of East and Southeast Asia is no longer “anecdotal”, with gains being seen in enquiries and conversions.
“Destinations like Ireland, Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands in Europe, and Dubai, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan and South Korea in Asia, are increasingly becoming attractive to international students,” said Pankaj Agrawal, co-founder and CEO, KC Overseas Education.
Students today are adopting a portfolio approach to applications. Instead of committing to a single country, they are shortlisting three to four destinations and applying across them
Suneet Singh Kochar, Fateh Education
Across major study destinations, Indian enrolments and visa approvals have declined over the past year – with US study visa refusal rates at 61%, India’s share of international students in Canada dropping to 8.1% from 51.6% in 2023, Australia seeing over 40% refusals, and 76% of UK universities reporting lower enrolments – while emerging destinations tell a different story.
Though uneven, growth across ‘newer’ destinations has been notable: Indian students in Ireland rose 30% year-on-year to 9,175 in 2024/25; Germany has seen a 43% increase over three years to around 60,000; France hosts about 10,000 Indian students annually with a target of 30,000 by 2030; and Malaysia has recorded roughly 79% growth to around 4,400 students as of 2024.
According to Suneet Singh Kochar, CEO, Fateh Education, Indian students have become more “pragmatic and exploratory”, with the share considering multiple destinations rising from around 10-15% in the past to 35-40% today.
“This shift is being driven by a combination of factors – more competitive tuition structures, access to low-cost or even free education in select European markets, and a stronger overall return on investment,” observed Kochar.
“Students today are adopting a portfolio approach to applications. Instead of committing to a single country, they are shortlisting three to four destinations and applying across them, reflecting a far more structured and risk-mitigated decision-making process.”
Regional divide emerges as demand shifts across cities and states
Recent reports suggest a dip in overseas education demand has forced many study abroad consultancies – particularly in states like Kerala – to shut offices, scale back or diversify, with the market estimated to have declined by 30-40% year-on-year, signalling broader shifts across major sending states and tier 1 and tier 2 cities in India.
“States like Punjab, Kerala, Gujarat, and Andhra/Telangana are seeing a greater slowdown compared to others,” said Agrawal.
Kochar made a similar point, noting that in markets such as Punjab, Haryana, and parts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, student decision-making remains highly visa-sensitive, with a strong focus on success rates and ease of entry. He added that trends also vary across cities.
“Tier 1 cities like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bangalore are witnessing a more mature and strategic outlook, with students prioritising long-term outcomes such as course relevance, alignment with emerging fields like AI, and overall return on investment,” Kochar said, adding that these considerations are only beginning to surface in tier 2 cities.
Agrawal, however, pointed to a faster shift beyond metros. “We are seeing a clear shift in demand beyond traditional Tier 1 hubs, with a growing number of students from Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities actively exploring overseas education. Improved access to scholarships, education financing, and greater awareness about global opportunities are key drivers behind this trend,” he added.
Unregulated growth and rising scrutiny reshape consultancy model
But consultancies are also grappling with a structural issue–— unregulated growth – with some firms across major source states implicated in fraud and cheating cases in recent years.
Recent instances underscore the risks: in Kerala, a consultancy was under investigation last year for helping hundreds of students obtain fake graduation certificates for overseas admissions and jobs, while in Chandigarh, police recorded 433 immigration fraud cases between 2021 and 2025 involving nearly INR 74 crore (over £577,900), with 232 fraudulent firms identified.
With the market tightening and scrutiny increasing, the easy-growth model – particularly for small, aggregator-dependent consultancies – is also beginning to break down.
“Smaller agencies also grew due to aggregators and following various compliance concerns. The aggregators have suffered losses and universities have been very cautious in adding new agents,” stated Singh.
Push grows for unified standards
Could a unified front of consultancies – setting industry-wide standards and codes of conduct – work in a country like India, where the sector operates with little regulation? Some believe so.
“There could be some benefits of players in the study abroad industry coming together to act as a collective body rather than operating independently – such as setting common standards and presenting a single voice when dealing with universities, governments or visa authorities,” said Agrawal.
Kochar also emphasised the need for a more coordinated approach. “A unified approach enables more balanced and objective guidance, allowing students to evaluate opportunities across geographies and make better-informed decisions,” he said.
“Over the next three to five years, we expect a significant proportion of consultancies in India to transition towards a unified, multi-country framework, making it the new industry standard.”
