Here are five takeaways from Honeywood’s Australia briefing at the Glasgow conference:
1. Refusal rates turn student visas into a “lottery“
Honeywood highlighted the current reality for two major source countries – around 19% visa approval for Nepal and around 49% visa approval for India.
Those numbers sit on top of what he described as “the world’s highest non‑refundable student visa application fees”.
“Bear in mind, these young people are having to pay AUD $2,500 non‑refundable application fee, and it’s like a lottery ticket for some of them,” he said.
“Obviously that means that for a number of countries, particularly for Latin America, they’re just not applying to come to Australia, unfortunately.”
2. Commencement data shows one strong pillar, and several that are weakening
As Australia operates under a National Planning Level for new international students, it can still point to headline growth in higher education, but Honeywood’s breakdown of commencements shows a much more uneven landscape. Total commencements in 2025 were 474,255, down from an all‑time peak of 564,952 in 2024.
Drawing on 2019–2026 (year‑to‑date May) data, he noted that higher education is tracking steady on last year and sits around 13% above 2019. In contrast, ELICOS is down 19% on last year and 56% below 2019.
VET commencements are down 14% year‑on‑year and 13% below 2019. Schools are down around 13% on the previous year and 27% down on 2019, and account for just 2% of Australia’s international enrolments, compared with 22% in New Zealand.
For Honeywood, English language enrolments are the key early‑warning signal.
“English language, which we often call the canary in the coal mine in Australia… that’s down particularly [badly].”
“If you come in to do English language for 20 weeks in our country, do you want to pay $2,500, which is the equivalent of five weeks of English language study, for a non‑refundable application fee?”
3. A new national “framework” will hard‑wire skills‑based allocations
Australia is also in the middle of re‑articulating its national vision for international education. Within that framework will sit four pillars, one of which is transnational education (TNE) – an area where Australia is now rapidly expanding, particularly in India.
But perhaps the most structurally significant change is the creation of a new arm’s‑length government body – the Australian Tertiary Education Commission (ATEC).
“We now have a new government body, which, at arm’s length from our minister, will be in future determining individual institution allocations to international students, and that will be partly based on skill needs for Australia.”
In practice, that could mean a rebalancing away from some traditional high‑volume disciplines.
“Traditionally, many Chinese students come and do a bachelor of business accounting in our country. We may well find that we move away from bachelor of business and more to allied health, IT, engineering – skills to build infrastructure.”
Honeywood is pushing Canberra to remember Australia’s longstanding regional role.
“It’s one thing for us to do skills for Australia, but for decades we’ve actually done skills that our neighbouring countries need for their young people when they go home. So let’s not turn our back on the social good of teaching skills that other countries need, rather than just ourselves.”
4. More visa tightening is “in the wind”, especially on dependants and course‑hopping
“We will have further tightening of visa processing to reduce our net overseas migration,” said Honeywood.
One likely move is restrictions on dependants, mirroring recent UK policy.
“This could include, following the UK’s piece, no dependants being able to come on student visas. That hasn’t been announced yet, but let’s just say it’s in the wind, except for research and PhD scholarship students.”
The Australian recently reported that the government is also considering blocking students from moving from higher education into the vocational education and training (VET) sector, as well as broader measures to limit “visa hopping” and onshore pathways to migration.
A spokesperson for the Department of Home Affairs told The PIE News that “the government is considering a range of reforms to the migration system to ensure it continues to operate in the national interest” and said that “any changes will be announced in due course”.
5. Yet Australia still leans into post‑study work and two‑way regional ties
Despite the tightening mood, Honeywood was keen to stress that not everything is heading in a negative direction, pointing in particular to increased engagement with Southeast Asia as a priority region, with students from these countries shielded from the sharpest visa fee hikes and seeing only a modest $50 increase.
He also pointed to ongoing support for post‑study work rights, which remain a core part of Australia’s offer and are still comparatively generous among major destination countries.
“We do have the ongoing support for post‑study work rights, and it’s probably the most generous at the moment with the big countries. So typically, it’s about a three‑year post‑study period which you can work full‑time after you graduate.”
Honeywood also highlighted Australia’s commitment to two‑way mobility and regional engagement through the New Colombo Plan, which sends around 14,000 young Australians each year to study in Indo‑Pacific universities.
He described it as “a wonderful initiative that sends about 14,000 young Australians each year to study in Indo‑Pacific universities” and focuses on which ensuring a two‑way mobility flow.
