Universities are keeping a close watch on rising airfares and potential flight disruption ahead of upcoming student intakes, with some warning that higher travel costs and visa delays could complicate arrivals and increase deferrals.
For some UK universities, flight availability and airfare costs have already been added to risk registers ahead of September arrivals as institutions adapt to the UK’s new Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) framework and evolving recruitment strategies.
The concerns come amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which have contributed to higher fuel surcharges, reduced connectivity on some routes and greater reliance on alternative flight paths, pushing up travel costs for international students.
Naomi Graham, vice principal, international and external relations at Edinburgh Napier University, said flight availability and travel costs had become an additional concern amid shifting entry requirements and compliance pressures.
“We’ve put that on our risk register, and availability of flights, cost of flights, particularly if that’s combined with visa concerns as well,” she said.
According to Graham, students receiving visa decisions later in the cycle may be forced to book travel at short notice, significantly increasing the cost of getting to the UK.
“Students are receiving visas late, and they’re not able to travel until the last minute. The cost would be double or triple what they should be paying,” she said.
“I think we will see more deferrals,” Graham said, adding that institutions have limited flexibility when it comes to accommodating late arrivals.
“Problem is, with later starts, if you extend your latest enrolment too far, you then risk non enrolment,” she added.
If there remains a reduction in flights routing through the Middle East this could mean further delays and affordability to travel to the UK to continue or commence their studies in September
Chris Chang, University of Portsmouth
Similar concerns were raised by Chris Chang, deputy vice chancellor for global engagement and student life at the University of Portsmouth, who said ongoing tensions in the Middle East were contributing to higher travel costs and affecting travel planning for both staff and students.
“At present we are seeing costs increases for our staff and student travel in terms of much higher ticket prices due to fuel surcharges, needing to route via destinations other than the Middle East and therefore potentially more expensive carriers, and the need to maintain flexible tickets for cancellation in case there continues to be conflict in the Middle East,” said Chang.
Looking ahead to the peak August and September travel period, Chang warned that reduced connectivity and higher travel costs could affect students travelling to begin or continue their studies.
“If there remains a reduction in flights routing through the Middle East this could mean further delays and affordability to travel to the UK to continue or commence their studies in September,” he said.
“This could mean institutions then needing to make decision on late arrivals which is often compounded by UKVI application delays as we have seen in the last 12 months.”
Despite those concerns, Chang cautioned that there was not yet clear evidence that travel costs alone were driving recruitment outcomes.
“Whilst the May intake has been impacted, we have seen a reduction of students coming to study in the UK this year as compared to last year,” he said.
“Sector data has seen a decline of around 40% for May, especially in South Asia. However this is due to a number of reasons including reduction of activities in certain source markets, visa brakes by UKVI, the UK perception as unwelcoming but also due to increases in inflationary costs for study in the UK.”
“We have not seen evidence of fuel and transport costs being a factor,” he said.
“At present September 2026 shows optimistic signs of marginal growth over last year with recovery in some markets and other markets showing positive for growth,” he said.
The discussion comes amid broader geopolitical and affordability concerns. IDP’s Emerging Futures report found that 43% of Indian students who abandoned plans to study overseas cited tuition costs as unaffordable, while 32% pointed to rising living expenses and 28% identified visa difficulties as a major challenge.
Nikhil Jain, founder and CEO of ForeignAdmits, said travel costs were increasingly becoming part of broader affordability conversations.
“Families are now actively asking us to factor in flight costs as part of the overall study abroad budget, which wasn’t really the case two or three years ago,” he said.
Jain said some students were responding by booking flights earlier to avoid price increases.
“Students are booking tickets much earlier now, purely to avoid getting caught by a price spike,” he said.
“Earlier, a family’s checklist was simple: good university, visa approval, affordable tuition. Now they’re thinking about exchange rates, geopolitical stability, post-study work options, even which flight routes are safe and affordable.”
Others argued travel costs remained only one part of the equation.
“Travel costs alone are usually not the deciding factor,” said Kim Dixit, CEO and co-founder of The Red Pen.
“Conversations are increasingly centred on topics such as visa stability, post-study work opportunities, long-term immigration pathways, job prospects, and overall career outcomes after graduation,” Dixit said.
“We are also seeing more families prefer travelling to the US via Southeast Asian hubs rather than through the Middle East, as they currently perceive these routes to be more stable and predictable.”
Mumbai-based education consultant Sushil Sukhwani, founder and director of Edwise International, likewise said significant behavioural changes had yet to emerge.
“Students and parents are yet indifferent to this,” he said, noting that many prospective students had not yet reached the flight-booking stage and may expect current geopolitical tensions to ease before departure.
“There is no major impact on student timelines regarding arrival planning, destination preferences, or deferral decisions as a result of rising travel uncertainty,” he said.
“Presently there are no shortages visible for visa dates, and there are no shortages visible for flights. It’s only a pricing issue.”
“Parents planning to study abroad overall is definitely being affected by the cost of the rupee, because of the impact of the price affordability,” he said.
Students are also weighing travel costs alongside tuition fees, exchange rates and scholarship availability.
Vaibhav Muke, a prospective PhD student whose visa application was rejected last month, said a total study cost of around US$105,000, rising tuition fees and uncertainty around scholarship funding had added to the financial pressures associated with studying overseas.
“Exchange rate will also play a major role,” Muke said.
Similar concerns are increasingly featuring in conversations between students and recruiters, according to Jain.
“It’s not just about getting in anymore. It’s about whether the whole picture makes financial and professional sense three to four years down the line.”
