Preliminary projections by NAFSA and JB International have laid bare the financial repercussions of Trump’s broad anti-immigration crackdown, with travel bans, visa interview and processing disruptions set to have a “devastating” impact on US local economies.
“All Americans lose when international students and scholars are driven to more welcoming countries,” said NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw in a statement.
“Forfeiting US position as the top destination for global talent hurts students, hospitals, research laboratories, the economies – and carries the real risk that the next big invention will not happen on US soil.”
The projections underscore what sector leaders have long warned and are based on IIE’s Spring 2026 Snapshot estimating a 9.5% drop in total international enrolments this fall.
That would amount to 110,000 fewer international students, depriving local economies of $3.4 billion in direct economic contributions from international students and up to 40,000 US jobs – a 9% reduction from last year’s baseline, warned the report.
To address the decline, NAFSA is urging the administration to prioritise interview availability and processing for students and exchange visitors, as well as those from the 39 travel ban nations. It also calls for the preservation of Optional Practical Training (OPT).
Reduced international student demand, sweeping visa bans and disruptions to student visa processing due to this year’s FIFA World Cup are among the many factors the research highlights for contributing to the decline.
With graduate-level enrolment declines the primary driver of economic losses, the research draws on recent data revealing a 21% drop in international doctoral applications for this fall, fuelling a 17% decline in international PhD admissions and contributing to a 15% fall in overall doctoral admissions due to the uncertainty of federal research funding.
Moreover, it warns of limited visa appointments in India, China and across Europe – following a NAFSA campaign last week urging policymakers to demand urgent improvements to visa improvements, with unavailability threatening swathes of students’ ability to enrol at US institutions in the coming weeks.
All Americans lose when international students and scholars are driven to more welcoming countries
Fanta Aw, NAFSA
The research follows repeated sector warnings about the economic impact of declining new international enrolments which fell by 17% last academic year amid Trump’s broad anti-immigration crackdown.
Sector advocates have said competitor countries will benefit from the US closing its doors to international talent, highlighting America’s unique capacity to host more international students, who currently make up just 6% of the overall student population.
By comparison, they comprise a much larger proportion of the total student body in the UK (27%), Australia (31%) and Canada (38%), according to IIE.
On top of immediate concerns about visa processing, the researchers highlight the damaging impact of DHS’s final rule ending duration of status and the administration’s repeated threats to OPT – compounding uncertainty and further dampening America’s appeal among prospective students.
